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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 28.7 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 1–2 Tottenham | 0.64–1.12 | 21% · 32% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Chelsea 0–2 Brentford | 2.03–2.16 | 37% · 20% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Bournemouth 2–1 Burnley | 1.11–0.83 | 42% · 31% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Arsenal 5–0 Sheffield Utd | 2.77–0.03 | 93% · 7% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Wolves 2–2 Newcastle | 0.89–2.19 | 14% · 19% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Newcastle had 67% |
| West Ham 0–1 Everton | 0.66–0.82 | 27% · 37% · 36% | Close call, Everton won |
| Aston Villa 3–1 Luton | 2.28–0.48 | 78% · 15% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Brighton 1–1 Fulham | 1.43–0.71 | 54% · 27% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Brighton had 54% |
| Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest | 3.19–0.45 | 89% · 8% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Manchester United 0–3 Manchester City | 0.95–4.00 | 4% · 7% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.