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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 25.9 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham 0–1 Manchester United | 1.01–0.69 | 42% · 33% · 24% | Won against the xG: Manchester United |
| Brentford 3–2 West Ham | 1.63–1.82 | 35% · 22% · 43% | Close call, Brentford won |
| Burnley 0–2 Crystal Palace | 1.12–1.30 | 32% · 27% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Everton 1–1 Brighton | 0.71–0.51 | 36% · 41% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Manchester City 6–1 Bournemouth | 1.95–0.91 | 62% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Sheffield Utd 2–1 Wolves | 1.05–1.33 | 29% · 27% · 43% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal | 1.04–0.57 | 46% · 34% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa | 0.38–1.23 | 11% · 30% · 58% | Won against the xG: Nottingham Forest |
| Luton 1–1 Liverpool | 0.81–2.85 | 8% · 13% · 79% | Draw against the xG: Liverpool had 79% |
| Tottenham 1–4 Chelsea | 0.89–4.12 | 4% · 7% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.