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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 25.4 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United 1–0 Fulham | 2.43–0.44 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Ipswich 0–2 Liverpool | 0.45–2.65 | 4% · 12% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Arsenal 2–0 Wolves | 1.24–0.47 | 56% · 30% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Everton 0–3 Brighton | 0.45–1.43 | 12% · 27% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Newcastle 1–0 Southampton | 0.25–1.77 | 5% · 20% · 76% | Won against the xG: Newcastle |
| Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth | 1.30–1.22 | 38% · 27% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Ham 1–2 Aston Villa | 2.46–2.03 | 48% · 19% · 33% | Close call, Aston Villa won |
| Brentford 2–1 Crystal Palace | 1.59–1.17 | 47% · 25% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Chelsea 0–2 Manchester City | 1.01–0.77 | 40% · 33% · 27% | Close call, Manchester City won |
| Leicester 1–1 Tottenham | 1.05–1.18 | 32% · 29% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.