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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 31.1 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton 2–1 Manchester United | 2.09–1.43 | 53% · 21% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Crystal Palace 0–2 West Ham | 1.35–1.39 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Fulham 2–1 Leicester | 1.78–0.61 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Manchester City 4–1 Ipswich | 3.34–0.29 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Southampton 0–1 Nottingham Forest | 0.14–2.45 | 1% · 10% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Tottenham 4–0 Everton | 2.43–1.00 | 69% · 17% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal | 1.28–0.87 | 46% · 29% · 25% | Won against the xG: Arsenal |
| Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle | 2.26–1.69 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 51% |
| Wolves 2–6 Chelsea | 1.96–1.68 | 45% · 22% · 34% | Close call, Chelsea won |
| Liverpool 2–0 Brentford | 2.65–0.36 | 86% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.