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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 24.6 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City 1–0 Wolves | 0.65–0.44 | 35% · 44% · 21% | Close call, Manchester City won |
| Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham | 0.96–0.85 | 37% · 33% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Everton 2–2 Ipswich | 0.55–0.85 | 22% · 38% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 2–0 Southampton | 1.40–0.53 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth | 1.42–0.97 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Won against the xG: Bournemouth |
| Brentford 4–3 Manchester United | 2.80–1.56 | 64% · 17% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Brighton 1–1 Newcastle | 0.69–1.87 | 13% · 21% · 66% | Draw against the xG: Newcastle had 66% |
| West Ham 1–1 Tottenham | 0.84–0.77 | 34% · 35% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Chelsea 3–1 Liverpool | 3.13–1.05 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest | 2.56–0.71 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Crystal Palace had 77% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.