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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 28.8 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 2–0 Tottenham | 1.39–0.51 | 59% · 28% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Chelsea 1–0 Manchester United | 0.83–0.30 | 46% · 41% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Everton 2–0 Southampton | 2.73–1.21 | 69% · 16% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest | 1.13–1.96 | 22% · 22% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Brentford 2–3 Fulham | 2.87–0.99 | 76% · 14% · 10% | Won against the xG: Fulham |
| Leicester 2–0 Ipswich | 0.80–1.41 | 21% · 27% · 51% | Won against the xG: Leicester |
| Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle | 0.64–1.86 | 12% · 21% · 67% | Won against the xG: Arsenal |
| Brighton 3–2 Liverpool | 2.20–2.23 | 40% · 20% · 41% | Close call, Brighton won |
| Crystal Palace 4–2 Wolves | 1.66–1.41 | 44% · 24% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Manchester City 3–1 Bournemouth | 1.54–1.12 | 47% · 25% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.