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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 31.1 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 3–0 Coventry | 1.88–0.20 | 79% · 18% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Hull City 2–0 Manchester United | 1.01–1.83 | 21% · 23% · 57% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace | 1.12–1.96 | 21% · 22% · 57% | Won against the xG: Everton |
| Ipswich 2–1 Sunderland | 1.80–0.66 | 65% · 22% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds | 0.66–0.47 | 35% · 43% · 22% | Close call, Leeds won |
| Brentford 3–0 Tottenham | 3.87–0.57 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa | 3.77–0.29 | 95% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Manchester City 2–1 Bournemouth | 2.25–0.65 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool | 1.58–2.98 | 18% · 16% · 66% | Draw against the xG: Liverpool had 66% |
| Fulham 2–3 Chelsea | 1.33–2.24 | 22% · 20% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.