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9 of 9 matches with xG: 27 goals from 26.4 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 Arminia Bielefeld | 1.53–1.38 | 41% · 25% · 34% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
| Paderborn 2–2 Karlsruher SC | 2.39–1.60 | 55% · 19% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Paderborn had 55% |
| VfL Bochum 1–1 Hannover 96 | 1.22–0.83 | 45% · 30% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Eintracht Braunschweig 2–1 Dynamo Dresden | 0.75–2.00 | 13% · 20% · 67% | Won against the xG: Eintracht Braunschweig |
| Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg | 1.12–1.91 | 22% · 22% · 56% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Magdeburg |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 3–0 Schalke 04 | 1.78–1.81 | 38% · 22% · 40% | Close call, 1. FC Nürnberg won |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–1 SV Elversberg | 0.65–0.77 | 27% · 38% · 35% | Close call, Fortuna Düsseldorf won |
| Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1.02–2.27 | 16% · 19% · 65% | Won against the xG: Hertha BSC |
| Preußen Münster 1–1 SV Darmstadt 98 | 0.99–2.33 | 15% · 18% · 67% | Draw against the xG: SV Darmstadt 98 had 67% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.