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9 of 10 matches with xG: 39 goals from 29.4 xG (1.33 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Viktoria Köln 1–3 Borussia Dortmund II | 2.15–1.11 | 61% · 20% · 19% | Won against the xG: Borussia Dortmund II |
| SSV Ulm 1846 3–1 Waldhof Mannheim | 1.42–0.86 | 50% · 27% · 23% | Win in line with xG for SSV Ulm 1846 |
| Preußen Münster 1–1 SV Sandhausen | 0.57–1.44 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Draw against the xG: SV Sandhausen had 58% |
| Dynamo Dresden 7–2 VfB Lübeck | 2.67–3.18 | 34% · 17% · 50% | Close call, Dynamo Dresden won |
| Verl 1–3 MSV Duisburg | 1.87–1.87 | 39% · 21% · 39% | Close call, MSV Duisburg won |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–3 Rot-Weiß Essen | 2.54–0.39 | 84% · 12% · 4% | Won against the xG: Rot-Weiß Essen |
| Freiburg II 0–3 Arminia Bielefeld | 0.20–1.74 | 4% · 20% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Arminia Bielefeld |
| Hallescher FC 2–3 Erzgebirge Aue | 1.74–2.59 | 25% · 18% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Erzgebirge Aue |
| TSV 1860 München 3–1 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.65–1.40 | 44% · 24% · 33% | Win in line with xG for TSV 1860 München |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.