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9 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 27.1 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen 0–0 Energie Cottbus | 2.13–0.64 | 72% · 18% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Alemannia Aachen had 72% |
| Waldhof Mannheim 2–2 Verl | 1.48–1.67 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 FC Saarbrücken | 0.26–3.41 | 1% · 5% · 94% | Won against the xG: FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| SV Wehen 2–0 Stuttgart II | 1.15–0.51 | 52% · 32% · 16% | Win in line with xG for SV Wehen |
| Borussia Dortmund II 0–2 Hansa Rostock | 0.94–2.23 | 15% · 19% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Hansa Rostock |
| Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Erzgebirge Aue | 3.62–0.83 | 87% · 8% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Dynamo Dresden |
| FC Viktoria Köln 1–2 TSV 1860 München | 0.73–0.68 | 32% · 38% · 29% | Close call, TSV 1860 München won |
| Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 Rot-Weiß Essen | 2.72–1.26 | 68% · 16% · 15% | Won against the xG: Rot-Weiß Essen |
| SpVgg Unterhaching 2–3 VfL Osnabrück | 1.21–1.64 | 28% · 24% · 47% | Win in line with xG for VfL Osnabrück |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.