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8 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 20.9 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Sandhausen 3–1 Borussia Dortmund II | 1.70–2.28 | 29% · 20% · 51% | Won against the xG: SV Sandhausen |
| Hansa Rostock 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim | 0.91–0.74 | 38% · 34% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rot-Weiß Essen 0–3 SV Wehen | 1.39–1.10 | 44% · 27% · 30% | Close call, SV Wehen won |
| TSV 1860 München 2–3 Dynamo Dresden | 2.58–2.05 | 50% · 19% · 31% | Close call, Dynamo Dresden won |
| FC Saarbrücken 1–1 SpVgg Unterhaching | 1.14–0.46 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Draw against the xG: FC Saarbrücken had 53% |
| VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Hannover 96 II | 1.75–1.14 | 52% · 24% · 25% | Draw against the xG: VfL Osnabrück had 52% |
| Verl 0–3 Energie Cottbus | 0.77–1.54 | 19% · 26% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Energie Cottbus |
| Alemannia Aachen 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln | 0.92–0.45 | 46% · 37% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Alemannia Aachen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.