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9 of 10 matches with xG: 35 goals from 31.2 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen 3–1 MSV Duisburg | 0.79–2.02 | 14% · 20% · 66% | Won against the xG: Alemannia Aachen |
| Erzgebirge Aue 2–2 SV Wehen | 1.42–1.60 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hansa Rostock 2–5 SSV Jahn Regensburg | 1.53–3.52 | 13% · 13% · 75% | Win in line with xG for SSV Jahn Regensburg |
| Hoffenheim II 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2.15–1.61 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Won against the xG: FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| TSV 1860 München 3–2 SSV Ulm 1846 | 1.72–3.21 | 18% · 15% · 67% | Won against the xG: TSV 1860 München |
| VfL Osnabrück 2–1 Verl | 1.09–1.09 | 35% · 29% · 35% | Win in line with xG for VfL Osnabrück |
| Waldhof Mannheim 2–2 FC Schweinfurt 05 | 2.11–1.40 | 54% · 21% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Waldhof Mannheim had 54% |
| FC Viktoria Köln 0–2 Energie Cottbus | 1.68–0.66 | 62% · 24% · 14% | Won against the xG: Energie Cottbus |
| Rot-Weiß Essen 1–2 FC Saarbrücken | 2.49–1.12 | 67% · 17% · 15% | Won against the xG: FC Saarbrücken |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.