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Most points above xPts: VfL Osnabrück (+13.4 pts), Rot-Weiß Essen (+10.5 pts), Alemannia Aachen (+9.6 pts).
Most points below xPts: SSV Ulm 1846 (−10.9 pts), Erzgebirge Aue (−10.4 pts), FC Schweinfurt 05 (−10.3 pts).
| # | Team | Real | MP | xG | xGA | xPts | Pts | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VfL Osnabrück | 1 | 28 | 44.5 | 31.3 | 46.6 | 60 | +13.4 |
| 2 | Verl | 4 | 27 | 44.0 | 31.6 | 44.1 | 44 | −0.1 |
| 3 | Energie Cottbus | 5 | 25 | 48.1 | 34.3 | 41.4 | 44 | +2.6 |
| 4 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 12 | 27 | 47.0 | 40.4 | 40.1 | 31 | −9.1 |
| 5 | Hansa Rostock | 2 | 24 | 49.0 | 35.6 | 39.8 | 47 | +7.2 |
| 6 | MSV Duisburg | 8 | 25 | 38.0 | 30.8 | 39.5 | 39 | −0.5 |
| 7 | TSV 1860 München | 7 | 26 | 45.8 | 42.6 | 37.9 | 42 | +4.1 |
| 8 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 3 | 24 | 41.9 | 38.8 | 35.5 | 46 | +10.5 |
| 9 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 9 | 25 | 40.7 | 40.6 | 35.0 | 37 | +2.0 |
| 10 | Waldhof Mannheim | 11 | 24 | 38.3 | 35.4 | 34.9 | 33 | −1.9 |
| 11 | SV Wehen | 10 | 25 | 37.7 | 38.1 | 34.4 | 36 | +1.6 |
| 12 | FC Saarbrücken | 15 | 25 | 41.1 | 40.6 | 34.4 | 27 | −7.4 |
| 13 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 17 | 25 | 37.4 | 42.3 | 32.9 | 22 | −10.9 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim II | 16 | 25 | 44.5 | 51.2 | 32.8 | 26 | −6.8 |
| 15 | FC Viktoria Köln | 13 | 24 | 33.4 | 34.1 | 32.7 | 31 | −1.7 |
| 16 | Alemannia Aachen | 6 | 26 | 37.1 | 42.9 | 32.4 | 42 | +9.6 |
| 17 | Stuttgart II | 14 | 22 | 37.1 | 41.0 | 29.0 | 30 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Erzgebirge Aue | 19 | 26 | 33.6 | 46.8 | 27.4 | 17 | −10.4 |
| 19 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 20 | 26 | 32.9 | 55.1 | 24.3 | 14 | −10.3 |
| 20 | Havelse | 18 | 23 | 31.9 | 50.5 | 23.8 | 21 | −2.8 |
Each match replayed from its full-time xG (Poisson): the points a side would earn on average (xPts). "Real" is the place in the real table.