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9 of 9 matches with xG: 30 goals from 31.6 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.36–2.28 | 42% · 19% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Hamburger SV |
| Borussia Dortmund 2–1 SV Elversberg | 1.61–1.31 | 44% · 24% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| RB Leipzig 5–2 FC Augsburg | 1.68–1.90 | 35% · 22% · 44% | Close call, RB Leipzig won |
| Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern Munich | 0.64–2.70 | 6% · 13% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Paderborn 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.33–1.77 | 51% · 20% · 30% | Draw against the xG: Paderborn had 51% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Werder Bremen | 0.75–1.42 | 20% · 27% · 53% | Won against the xG: VfB Stuttgart |
| FC Cologne 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen | 1.59–1.75 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| SC Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin | 2.62–0.36 | 86% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| Hoffenheim 2–1 Schalke 04 | 1.94–2.61 | 29% · 18% · 53% | Won against the xG: Hoffenheim |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.