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6 of 7 matches with xG: 11 goals from 12.5 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATK Mohun Bagan 2–0 Kerala Blasters | 2.37–0.21 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for ATK Mohun Bagan |
| Goa 1–1 Inter Kashi | 1.49–0.74 | 55% · 26% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Goa had 55% |
| Jamshedpur 1–0 Mohammedan | 1.35–0.24 | 66% · 28% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Jamshedpur |
| Bengaluru 2–0 SC Delhi | 0.97–0.48 | 46% · 36% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Bengaluru |
| East Bengal II 3–0 NorthEast United | 2.50–0.16 | 88% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for East Bengal II |
| Mumbai City 1–0 Chennaiyin | 0.98–0.99 | 34% · 31% · 35% | Close call, Mumbai City won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.