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6 of 7 matches with xG: 11 goals from 13.0 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammedan 0–2 Goa | 1.43–3.04 | 15% · 15% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Goa |
| East Bengal II 4–1 SC Delhi | 2.05–0.55 | 73% · 18% · 9% | Win in line with xG for East Bengal II |
| Jamshedpur 1–0 Minerva Punjab | 0.66–0.50 | 34% · 43% · 24% | Close call, Jamshedpur won |
| Kerala Blasters 0–1 Mumbai City | 0.57–1.56 | 13% · 25% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Mumbai City |
| ATK Mohun Bagan 2–0 Chennaiyin | 1.61–0.04 | 79% · 20% · 1% | Win in line with xG for ATK Mohun Bagan |
| Odisha 0–0 Inter Kashi | 0.89–0.08 | 56% · 41% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Odisha had 56% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.