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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 21.3 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli 0–1 Hellas Verona | 0.70–0.51 | 35% · 41% · 23% | Close call, Hellas Verona won |
| Frosinone 1–3 Napoli | 0.89–1.50 | 22% · 26% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Genoa 1–4 Fiorentina | 0.21–0.99 | 8% · 37% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
| Inter 2–0 Monza | 2.69–0.78 | 78% · 14% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| AS Roma 2–2 Salernitana | 1.90–0.14 | 81% · 17% · 2% | Draw against the xG: AS Roma had 81% |
| Sassuolo 0–2 Atalanta | 0.44–1.32 | 12% · 29% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Lecce 2–1 Lazio | 1.47–1.61 | 35% · 24% · 41% | Close call, Lecce won |
| Udinese 0–3 Juventus | 1.00–1.85 | 20% · 23% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Torino 0–0 Cagliari | 0.96–0.39 | 49% · 37% · 15% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bologna 0–2 AC Milan | 1.06–0.90 | 39% · 31% · 30% | Close call, AC Milan won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.