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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 22.7 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone 2–1 Atalanta | 0.72–1.65 | 16% · 24% · 60% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
| Monza 2–0 Empoli | 1.99–0.97 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Hellas Verona 2–1 AS Roma | 0.75–1.56 | 18% · 25% · 57% | Won against the xG: Hellas Verona |
| AC Milan 4–1 Torino | 3.04–0.48 | 87% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Fiorentina 2–2 Lecce | 1.35–0.26 | 65% · 28% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Fiorentina had 65% |
| Juventus 1–1 Bologna | 0.83–0.50 | 41% · 39% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lazio 0–1 Genoa | 1.45–0.56 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Won against the xG: Genoa |
| Napoli 2–0 Sassuolo | 3.54–0.17 | 95% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Salernitana 1–1 Udinese | 0.50–0.80 | 21% · 39% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cagliari 0–2 Inter | 0.66–0.92 | 25% · 35% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.