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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 26.5 xG (0.79 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari 1–2 Torino | 2.27–1.66 | 52% · 20% · 28% | Won against the xG: Torino |
| Atalanta 2–0 Udinese | 1.15–0.60 | 49% · 32% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Juventus 1–1 Empoli | 0.82–0.79 | 33% · 35% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| AC Milan 2–2 Bologna | 3.28–1.84 | 66% · 15% · 19% | Draw against the xG: AC Milan had 66% |
| Genoa 2–1 Lecce | 1.69–1.85 | 36% · 22% · 42% | Close call, Genoa won |
| Hellas Verona 1–1 Frosinone | 2.25–1.26 | 60% · 20% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Hellas Verona had 60% |
| Monza 1–0 Sassuolo | 0.40–0.76 | 18% · 42% · 41% | Won against the xG: Monza |
| Lazio 0–0 Napoli | 0.48–0.16 | 34% · 57% · 9% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fiorentina 0–1 Inter | 1.84–0.55 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Won against the xG: Inter |
| Salernitana 1–2 AS Roma | 1.18–1.64 | 27% · 24% · 48% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.