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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 22.6 xG (1.24 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce 3–2 Fiorentina | 2.62–1.12 | 69% · 16% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Lecce |
| Empoli 0–0 Genoa | 0.56–0.65 | 26% · 42% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Udinese 0–0 Monza | 0.90–0.11 | 55% · 40% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Udinese had 55% |
| Frosinone 2–3 AC Milan | 1.02–1.42 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Bologna 4–2 Sassuolo | 1.07–0.77 | 42% · 32% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Torino 0–0 Salernitana | 0.89–0.10 | 55% · 41% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Torino had 55% |
| Napoli 2–1 Hellas Verona | 1.29–0.93 | 45% · 28% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Atalanta 3–1 Lazio | 2.27–1.22 | 61% · 19% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Inter 1–0 Juventus | 1.75–0.66 | 64% · 23% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| AS Roma 4–0 Cagliari | 2.71–0.56 | 82% · 12% · 5% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.