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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 23.7 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio 0–1 AC Milan | 1.33–1.00 | 44% · 28% · 28% | Won against the xG: AC Milan |
| Udinese 1–1 Salernitana | 1.81–1.10 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Udinese had 54% |
| Monza 1–4 AS Roma | 0.89–1.84 | 18% · 22% · 60% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Torino 0–0 Fiorentina | 0.60–0.62 | 29% · 42% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hellas Verona 1–0 Sassuolo | 0.36–0.45 | 21% · 52% · 27% | Close call, Hellas Verona won |
| Empoli 0–1 Cagliari | 1.46–0.57 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Won against the xG: Cagliari |
| Frosinone 1–1 Lecce | 1.33–1.23 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atalanta 1–2 Bologna | 1.35–1.33 | 37% · 26% · 37% | Close call, Bologna won |
| Napoli 2–1 Juventus | 2.11–1.66 | 48% · 21% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Inter 2–1 Genoa | 1.87–0.83 | 62% · 22% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.