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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 31.2 xG (0.77 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia 2–1 Udinese | 1.60–1.09 | 49% · 25% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Cagliari 1–0 Frosinone | 0.97–2.30 | 14% · 18% · 67% | Won against the xG: Cagliari |
| Torino 1–1 Lecce | 0.97–0.31 | 52% · 37% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Torino had 52% |
| Parma 1–2 Bologna | 1.52–3.58 | 12% · 12% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| AS Roma 3–0 Sassuolo | 3.81–0.34 | 94% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Napoli 1–1 Lazio | 2.44–0.92 | 71% · 17% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Napoli had 71% |
| Genoa 1–2 AC Milan | 1.22–0.67 | 49% · 30% · 20% | Won against the xG: AC Milan |
| Monza 0–1 Atalanta | 1.42–1.33 | 39% · 26% · 35% | Close call, Atalanta won |
| Inter 2–0 Como | 1.86–0.23 | 78% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Fiorentina 2–2 Juventus | 2.15–2.45 | 35% · 19% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.