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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 26.2 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara 1–1 Spezia | 0.87–1.31 | 25% · 28% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avellino 1–0 Modena | 1.01–0.13 | 59% · 36% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Avellino |
| Virtus Entella 2–1 Carrarese | 1.48–0.48 | 62% · 26% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Virtus Entella |
| Sudtirol 1–1 Juve Stabia | 2.16–0.51 | 76% · 17% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Sudtirol had 76% |
| Venezia 2–0 Palermo | 2.86–1.02 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Cesena 3–4 Padova | 2.26–1.84 | 48% · 20% · 32% | Close call, Padova won |
| Reggiana 1–0 Sampdoria | 0.99–0.86 | 37% · 32% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Reggiana |
| Monza 2–2 Empoli | 1.24–1.04 | 41% · 28% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Frosinone 5–0 Mantova | 1.87–1.21 | 53% · 23% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Catanzaro 2–3 Bari | 2.07–1.01 | 62% · 21% · 18% | Won against the xG: Bari |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.