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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 25.7 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo 3–2 Catanzaro | 2.24–1.52 | 54% · 20% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Juve Stabia 0–1 Frosinone | 1.48–0.66 | 57% · 26% · 17% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
| Sampdoria 1–0 Sudtirol | 1.11–0.68 | 46% · 32% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Sampdoria |
| Carrarese 0–0 Cesena | 1.13–0.45 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Carrarese had 53% |
| Spezia 2–2 Venezia | 1.05–2.86 | 11% · 14% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Venezia had 75% |
| Mantova 3–2 Monza | 1.85–2.14 | 34% · 21% · 45% | Close call, Mantova won |
| Modena 2–1 Reggiana | 0.53–1.76 | 11% · 22% · 67% | Won against the xG: Modena |
| Bari 2–0 Virtus Entella | 1.15–0.66 | 48% · 31% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Bari |
| Empoli 1–0 Avellino | 2.41–0.20 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Empoli |
| Padova 1–0 Pescara | 0.63–1.22 | 19% · 30% · 50% | Won against the xG: Padova |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.