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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 25.6 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza 1–0 Modena | 0.43–0.94 | 16% · 37% · 47% | Won against the xG: Monza |
| Avellino 2–0 Bari | 2.81–0.51 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Avellino |
| Catanzaro 4–2 Spezia | 1.74–2.06 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Close call, Catanzaro won |
| Reggiana 1–1 Palermo | 0.85–1.48 | 22% · 26% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Palermo had 52% |
| Sudtirol 0–3 Mantova | 0.90–0.81 | 36% · 34% · 31% | Close call, Mantova won |
| Pescara 1–1 Juve Stabia | 0.53–1.53 | 13% · 25% · 62% | Draw against the xG: Juve Stabia had 62% |
| Virtus Entella 1–0 Padova | 2.38–0.37 | 82% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Virtus Entella |
| Frosinone 3–0 Carrarese | 3.37–1.50 | 73% · 13% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Venezia 2–0 Empoli | 1.61–0.70 | 59% · 25% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Cesena 0–0 Sampdoria | 0.47–0.56 | 24% · 46% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.