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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 26.0 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria 0–3 Monza | 0.74–1.39 | 20% · 28% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Bari 0–3 Venezia | 0.46–2.21 | 6% · 16% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Modena 1–2 Frosinone | 1.91–2.40 | 31% · 19% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Mantova 0–2 Avellino | 1.40–0.36 | 64% · 27% · 9% | Won against the xG: Avellino |
| Spezia 6–1 Sudtirol | 3.49–0.36 | 93% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Spezia |
| Palermo 2–0 Cesena | 1.82–1.35 | 49% · 23% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Juve Stabia 1–1 Catanzaro | 0.63–0.83 | 26% · 37% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Carrarese 2–2 Pescara | 1.19–1.25 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Padova 1–0 Reggiana | 1.38–1.08 | 44% · 27% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Padova |
| Empoli 1–1 Virtus Entella | 0.96–0.81 | 38% · 33% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.