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10 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 24.7 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone 1–1 Palermo | 0.49–0.64 | 24% · 43% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sudtirol 1–1 Modena | 2.52–1.19 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Sudtirol had 66% |
| Virtus Entella 1–1 Venezia | 0.89–0.54 | 42% · 37% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Pescara 1–2 Sampdoria | 1.45–2.06 | 27% · 21% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Sampdoria |
| Juve Stabia 2–0 Cesena | 0.49–0.91 | 19% · 37% · 44% | Won against the xG: Juve Stabia |
| Avellino 1–1 Catanzaro | 2.08–0.54 | 74% · 18% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Avellino had 74% |
| Monza 2–0 Bari | 2.01–0.21 | 81% · 16% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Padova 1–0 Empoli | 1.33–1.96 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Won against the xG: Padova |
| Spezia 0–2 Mantova | 2.41–1.00 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Won against the xG: Mantova |
| Reggiana 2–0 Carrarese | 0.80–1.20 | 25% · 30% · 45% | Won against the xG: Reggiana |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.