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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 27.9 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone 2–0 Padova | 2.64–0.91 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Palermo 2–0 Avellino | 0.68–0.11 | 46% · 49% · 5% | Close call, Palermo won |
| Cesena 1–1 Sudtirol | 1.13–1.23 | 34% · 28% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Reggiana 1–3 Pescara | 0.78–2.44 | 10% · 16% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Pescara |
| Venezia 3–1 Juve Stabia | 2.64–0.98 | 73% · 16% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Catanzaro 1–1 Monza | 1.03–1.12 | 33% · 29% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bari 3–1 Modena | 2.22–1.31 | 58% · 20% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Bari |
| Mantova 1–0 Virtus Entella | 1.68–0.83 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Sampdoria 1–0 Empoli | 1.48–0.68 | 56% · 26% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Sampdoria |
| Carrarese 3–1 Spezia | 2.61–1.44 | 63% · 18% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.