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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 28.6 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova 0–1 Palermo | 1.59–1.32 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Close call, Palermo won |
| Cesena 3–1 Catanzaro | 1.99–1.62 | 47% · 22% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Cesena |
| Juve Stabia 3–1 Spezia | 3.34–1.06 | 81% · 11% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Juve Stabia |
| Monza 1–1 Venezia | 1.90–0.94 | 60% · 22% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Monza had 60% |
| Modena 2–1 Mantova | 0.65–0.84 | 26% · 37% · 37% | Close call, Modena won |
| Bari 0–3 Carrarese | 1.21–1.43 | 32% · 26% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Sudtirol 1–3 Frosinone | 1.87–1.05 | 57% · 22% · 21% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
| Empoli 4–2 Pescara | 3.55–0.97 | 84% · 10% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Empoli |
| Sampdoria 2–1 Avellino | 0.53–0.32 | 32% · 50% · 17% | Close call, Sampdoria won |
| Virtus Entella 3–0 Reggiana | 1.73–0.68 | 63% · 23% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Virtus Entella |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.