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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 28.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo 2–2 Juve Stabia | 2.99–1.08 | 76% · 14% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Palermo had 76% |
| Venezia 3–1 Padova | 3.68–0.63 | 90% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Mantova 3–0 Cesena | 1.68–0.75 | 60% · 24% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Spezia 1–1 Empoli | 1.36–1.51 | 34% · 25% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Reggiana 0–0 Monza | 0.50–1.19 | 16% · 31% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Monza had 53% |
| Frosinone 2–1 Bari | 2.24–0.62 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Carrarese 2–0 Sampdoria | 2.02–0.55 | 72% · 19% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Pescara 3–0 Virtus Entella | 0.76–0.90 | 29% · 34% · 37% | Close call, Pescara won |
| Avellino 3–2 Sudtirol | 2.06–1.39 | 53% · 21% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Avellino |
| Catanzaro 2–2 Modena | 1.18–1.26 | 34% · 27% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.