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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 24.6 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modena 3–0 Spezia | 1.69–0.14 | 77% · 20% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Bari 4–1 Reggiana | 1.14–1.31 | 32% · 27% · 40% | Close call, Bari won |
| Empoli 2–2 Mantova | 2.33–1.24 | 62% · 19% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Empoli had 62% |
| Padova 1–3 Catanzaro | 1.00–1.02 | 34% · 31% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Juve Stabia 1–1 Carrarese | 1.04–1.25 | 31% · 28% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cesena 2–2 Frosinone | 2.34–1.77 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Draw against the xG: Cesena had 51% |
| Monza 3–0 Palermo | 1.31–1.01 | 43% · 28% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Sampdoria 0–0 Venezia | 0.41–1.75 | 8% · 21% · 71% | Draw against the xG: Venezia had 71% |
| Virtus Entella 1–2 Avellino | 1.40–0.56 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Won against the xG: Avellino |
| Sudtirol 0–0 Pescara | 0.24–1.67 | 5% · 21% · 74% | Draw against the xG: Pescara had 74% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.