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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 26.4 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia 4–2 Monza | 1.60–0.87 | 55% · 25% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Spezia |
| Avellino 1–0 Padova | 1.75–0.60 | 65% · 23% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Avellino |
| Sudtirol 0–1 Virtus Entella | 0.94–1.02 | 32% · 31% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Virtus Entella |
| Venezia 2–0 Reggiana | 2.40–0.51 | 79% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Modena 0–0 Cesena | 0.92–0.09 | 57% · 40% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Modena had 57% |
| Frosinone 3–0 Sampdoria | 1.96–0.64 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Catanzaro 3–2 Empoli | 1.95–0.78 | 65% · 21% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Mantova 2–0 Juve Stabia | 1.58–0.18 | 74% · 22% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Carrarese 0–1 Palermo | 1.74–1.70 | 40% · 22% · 38% | Close call, Palermo won |
| Pescara 4–0 Bari | 4.14–0.99 | 89% · 7% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Pescara |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.