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10 of 10 matches with xG: 37 goals from 23.4 xG (1.58 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova 2–2 Spezia | 1.69–1.09 | 51% · 24% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Padova had 51% |
| Venezia 4–0 Avellino | 1.89–0.13 | 81% · 17% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Virtus Entella 2–1 Modena | 0.52–2.07 | 8% · 18% · 74% | Won against the xG: Virtus Entella |
| Reggiana 0–4 Sudtirol | 0.17–0.89 | 7% · 40% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Sudtirol |
| Cesena 1–3 Monza | 1.02–1.54 | 25% · 26% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Carrarese 3–3 Catanzaro | 1.54–1.96 | 31% · 22% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bari 2–1 Empoli | 1.35–0.55 | 57% · 28% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Bari |
| Juve Stabia 1–1 Sampdoria | 0.90–0.36 | 47% · 38% · 14% | Draw in line with xG |
| Palermo 2–1 Mantova | 1.48–1.05 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Frosinone 2–2 Pescara | 2.37–0.83 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Frosinone had 72% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.