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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 26.6 xG (0.79 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza 2–0 Virtus Entella | 3.40–0.36 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Sampdoria 0–2 Bari | 1.17–0.66 | 48% · 31% · 21% | Won against the xG: Bari |
| Empoli 1–1 Cesena | 2.09–1.47 | 52% · 21% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Empoli had 52% |
| Modena 1–2 Padova | 0.38–0.56 | 20% · 48% · 32% | Close call, Padova won |
| Sudtirol 1–1 Venezia | 1.23–1.24 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Spezia 0–1 Reggiana | 1.96–0.45 | 74% · 19% · 8% | Won against the xG: Reggiana |
| Avellino 0–0 Juve Stabia | 0.54–0.17 | 37% · 54% · 10% | Draw in line with xG |
| Catanzaro 2–2 Frosinone | 3.16–2.23 | 57% · 16% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Catanzaro had 57% |
| Pescara 2–1 Palermo | 1.30–1.50 | 33% · 25% · 42% | Close call, Pescara won |
| Mantova 1–1 Carrarese | 2.00–0.71 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Mantova had 68% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.