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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 29.0 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone 2–2 Empoli | 1.79–2.65 | 25% · 18% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Empoli had 56% |
| Padova 1–1 Bari | 0.95–1.59 | 23% · 25% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Bari had 52% |
| Venezia 3–2 Pescara | 2.22–2.67 | 33% · 18% · 49% | Close call, Venezia won |
| Mantova 2–1 Sampdoria | 0.94–1.18 | 29% · 29% · 41% | Close call, Mantova won |
| Virtus Entella 1–3 Catanzaro | 1.19–1.83 | 25% · 23% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Palermo 3–0 Sudtirol | 1.44–1.02 | 47% · 27% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Cesena 2–3 Spezia | 2.77–1.25 | 69% · 16% · 15% | Won against the xG: Spezia |
| Carrarese 0–1 Monza | 0.58–0.75 | 25% · 39% · 36% | Close call, Monza won |
| Juve Stabia 1–2 Modena | 2.02–0.71 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Won against the xG: Modena |
| Reggiana 1–1 Avellino | 0.98–0.46 | 47% · 36% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.