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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 24.3 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria 1–0 Padova | 1.50–0.23 | 70% · 24% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Sampdoria |
| Palermo 3–0 Virtus Entella | 1.13–1.17 | 35% · 28% · 37% | Close call, Palermo won |
| Modena 2–0 Carrarese | 0.86–1.01 | 30% · 32% · 38% | Close call, Modena won |
| Catanzaro 2–0 Mantova | 0.56–1.70 | 12% · 23% · 65% | Won against the xG: Catanzaro |
| Cesena 0–4 Venezia | 0.74–2.98 | 6% · 12% · 82% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Monza 2–1 Juve Stabia | 0.93–1.84 | 19% · 23% · 59% | Won against the xG: Monza |
| Bari 1–2 Sudtirol | 0.57–2.25 | 8% · 16% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Sudtirol |
| Spezia 0–2 Frosinone | 0.46–2.30 | 6% · 15% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Empoli 1–1 Reggiana | 1.34–1.03 | 44% · 27% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avellino 0–1 Pescara | 0.66–1.01 | 23% · 34% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Pescara |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.