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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 26.1 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria 3–3 Palermo | 1.55–1.33 | 43% · 25% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Venezia 0–2 Modena | 1.02–2.15 | 17% · 20% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Padova 1–0 Carrarese | 0.63–1.28 | 18% · 29% · 52% | Won against the xG: Padova |
| Pescara 0–2 Catanzaro | 2.01–2.45 | 32% · 19% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Virtus Entella 3–1 Cesena | 0.82–1.61 | 19% · 25% · 56% | Won against the xG: Virtus Entella |
| Reggiana 1–0 Mantova | 0.75–0.55 | 36% · 40% · 24% | Close call, Reggiana won |
| Sudtirol 0–0 Monza | 0.85–0.45 | 43% · 39% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Empoli 1–2 Juve Stabia | 1.12–0.67 | 46% · 32% · 22% | Won against the xG: Juve Stabia |
| Bari 0–0 Spezia | 1.75–1.25 | 49% · 23% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avellino 1–3 Frosinone | 1.09–2.76 | 12% · 15% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.