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8 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 17.8 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modena 1–2 Sampdoria | 1.28–0.52 | 55% · 30% · 15% | Won against the xG: Sampdoria |
| Catanzaro 2–0 Reggiana | 1.15–1.05 | 38% · 29% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Frosinone 1–2 Venezia | 1.77–1.29 | 49% · 23% · 28% | Won against the xG: Venezia |
| Carrarese 0–0 Sudtirol | 0.59–0.74 | 26% · 39% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mantova 2–1 Bari | 1.62–0.44 | 67% · 24% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Palermo 3–2 Empoli | 1.94–1.07 | 58% · 22% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Spezia 1–1 Virtus Entella | 0.71–0.31 | 41% · 44% · 15% | Draw in line with xG |
| Monza 2–1 Avellino | 3.08–0.21 | 92% · 7% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.