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8 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 27.6 xG (0.73 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bari 0–3 Palermo | 0.38–3.74 | 1% · 5% · 94% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Virtus Entella 1–1 Frosinone | 2.26–1.61 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Virtus Entella had 53% |
| Empoli 0–0 Modena | 0.99–0.93 | 36% · 32% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Venezia 2–1 Carrarese | 3.91–0.87 | 89% · 7% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Avellino 3–1 Cesena | 1.61–2.40 | 25% · 19% · 55% | Won against the xG: Avellino |
| Sudtirol 2–1 Catanzaro | 0.81–2.33 | 11% · 17% · 71% | Won against the xG: Sudtirol |
| Pescara 2–2 Mantova | 0.66–2.93 | 6% · 11% · 83% | Draw against the xG: Mantova had 83% |
| Sampdoria 1–0 Spezia | 0.65–1.49 | 16% · 26% · 58% | Won against the xG: Sampdoria |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.