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8 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 18.1 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese 3–0 Empoli | 2.30–1.28 | 60% · 19% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Cesena 1–2 Bari | 2.20–0.61 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Won against the xG: Bari |
| Monza 3–0 Pescara | 0.95–1.40 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Won against the xG: Monza |
| Juve Stabia 1–0 Virtus Entella | 0.95–0.50 | 45% · 36% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Juve Stabia |
| Frosinone 1–0 Reggiana | 1.51–1.20 | 44% · 25% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Mantova 2–5 Venezia | 0.36–2.66 | 3% · 11% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Modena 0–0 Palermo | 0.34–0.45 | 20% · 53% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Spezia 1–0 Avellino | 0.92–0.48 | 45% · 37% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Spezia |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.