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7 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 20.4 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza 2–2 Frosinone | 2.30–0.85 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Monza had 70% |
| Avellino 1–2 Carrarese | 0.74–1.23 | 22% · 30% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Padova 1–2 Mantova | 1.49–1.70 | 34% · 23% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Venezia 3–1 Catanzaro | 3.93–0.38 | 95% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Venezia |
| Empoli 0–1 Sudtirol | 0.60–0.46 | 32% · 45% · 23% | Close call, Sudtirol won |
| Reggiana 1–2 Cesena | 1.67–2.08 | 31% · 21% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Cesena |
| Bari 0–1 Juve Stabia | 0.32–2.63 | 3% · 11% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Juve Stabia |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.