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9 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 27.1 xG (0.70 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol 2–1 Spezia | 1.38–1.85 | 29% · 23% · 49% | Won against the xG: Sudtirol |
| Frosinone 2–0 Catanzaro | 1.16–1.88 | 23% · 22% · 54% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
| Virtus Entella 1–0 Monza | 1.14–0.94 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Virtus Entella |
| Avellino 2–1 Sampdoria | 1.02–1.90 | 20% · 22% · 58% | Won against the xG: Avellino |
| Carrarese 1–0 Bari | 2.51–0.73 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Carrarese |
| Juve Stabia 2–2 Pescara | 2.20–1.54 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Juve Stabia had 53% |
| Cesena 0–1 Empoli | 1.53–1.98 | 30% · 22% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Empoli |
| Mantova 1–1 Palermo | 0.27–1.91 | 4% · 18% · 78% | Draw against the xG: Palermo had 78% |
| Padova 2–0 Modena | 0.64–2.54 | 7% · 14% · 79% | Won against the xG: Padova |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.