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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 25.8 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli 1–1 Palermo | 1.32–1.63 | 31% · 24% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cesena 1–0 Catanzaro | 1.15–0.66 | 48% · 31% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Cesena |
| Juve Stabia 1–0 Arezzo | 1.13–1.28 | 33% · 27% · 40% | Close call, Juve Stabia won |
| Padova 2–2 Empoli | 1.10–1.84 | 23% · 23% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Empoli had 55% |
| Pisa 2–2 Sudtirol | 1.72–1.65 | 40% · 23% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mantova 0–0 Hellas Verona | 1.37–1.27 | 39% · 26% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Benevento 1–1 Avellino | 1.82–0.69 | 64% · 22% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Benevento had 64% |
| Virtus Entella 0–2 Modena | 0.46–1.40 | 12% · 27% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Carrarese 0–1 Sampdoria | 0.91–0.54 | 43% · 36% · 21% | Won against the xG: Sampdoria |
| Vicenza Virtus 1–4 Cremonese | 1.11–2.75 | 13% · 15% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Cremonese |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.