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9 of 9 matches with xG: 22 goals from 19.8 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale 4–2 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.56–1.49 | 39% · 24% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Kawasaki Frontale |
| Urawa 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.85–0.50 | 42% · 38% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
| Albirex Niigata 1–1 Sagan Tosu | 1.53–0.50 | 63% · 25% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Albirex Niigata had 63% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 4–1 Consadole Sapporo | 1.97–1.53 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Yokohama FC 1–0 FC Tokyo | 0.43–0.48 | 24% · 49% · 27% | Close call, Yokohama FC won |
| Gamba Osaka 0–1 Nagoya Grampus | 0.77–0.73 | 33% · 37% · 30% | Close call, Nagoya Grampus won |
| Vissel Kobe 3–1 Kashima | 2.57–0.72 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Shonan Bellmare | 0.96–1.33 | 27% · 28% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–0 Cerezo Osaka | 1.25–0.67 | 50% · 30% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 50% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.