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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 32.2 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consadole Sapporo 1–0 Jubilo Iwata | 1.69–0.65 | 63% · 24% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Consadole Sapporo |
| Kashiwa Reysol 2–1 Shonan Bellmare | 0.99–1.25 | 29% · 29% · 42% | Close call, Kashiwa Reysol won |
| Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Gamba Osaka | 1.58–0.22 | 72% · 23% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Tokyo Verdy had 72% |
| Machida Zelvia 2–1 Cerezo Osaka | 1.77–1.91 | 36% · 22% · 42% | Close call, Machida Zelvia won |
| Albirex Niigata 3–1 Yokohama F. Marinos | 2.09–2.11 | 40% · 20% · 40% | Close call, Albirex Niigata won |
| Nagoya Grampus 3–1 FC Tokyo | 1.72–1.19 | 50% · 24% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Vissel Kobe 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.66–0.89 | 56% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–3 Kashima | 1.17–1.83 | 24% · 23% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Sagan Tosu 5–2 Kawasaki Frontale | 2.72–2.91 | 38% · 17% · 45% | Close call, Sagan Tosu won |
| Urawa 3–0 Kyoto Sanga | 2.64–1.26 | 67% · 17% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.