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10 of 10 matches with xG: 40 goals from 31.1 xG (1.29 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex Niigata 2–4 Urawa | 2.16–1.76 | 47% · 21% · 32% | Close call, Urawa won |
| Jubilo Iwata 0–3 Sagan Tosu | 1.54–1.72 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Sagan Tosu |
| Kyoto Sanga 2–3 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.18–1.44 | 31% · 26% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
| Kawasaki Frontale 3–0 Consadole Sapporo | 1.91–1.34 | 51% · 22% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Kawasaki Frontale |
| Shonan Bellmare 0–0 Machida Zelvia | 1.44–0.71 | 55% · 27% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Shonan Bellmare had 55% |
| Nagoya Grampus 0–1 Gamba Osaka | 0.39–1.37 | 10% · 28% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–4 Vissel Kobe | 2.09–1.65 | 48% · 21% · 31% | Close call, Vissel Kobe won |
| FC Tokyo 3–3 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.92–2.28 | 33% · 20% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kashima 3–3 Tokyo Verdy | 1.26–1.69 | 29% · 24% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 3–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.01–1.20 | 56% · 21% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.