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8 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 20.7 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Machida Zelvia | 1.70–0.80 | 59% · 24% · 17% | Won against the xG: Machida Zelvia |
| Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.78–1.73 | 17% · 23% · 60% | Won against the xG: Nagoya Grampus |
| Kyoto Sanga 0–0 Urawa | 2.03–0.82 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Kyoto Sanga had 66% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.03–0.76 | 41% · 33% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Cerezo Osaka | 1.16–0.92 | 41% · 30% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Shonan Bellmare 5–0 Jubilo Iwata | 3.22–0.29 | 92% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Sagan Tosu 0–2 Gamba Osaka | 1.08–1.32 | 30% · 27% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 4–1 Kashima | 1.41–1.62 | 33% · 24% · 43% | Close call, Yokohama F. Marinos won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.