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10 of 10 matches with xG: 37 goals from 28.4 xG (1.30 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima 2–1 FC Tokyo | 1.40–0.68 | 54% · 28% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Machida Zelvia 1–2 Yokohama F. Marinos | 0.50–1.58 | 11% · 24% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Urawa 3–4 Consadole Sapporo | 2.69–1.16 | 70% · 16% · 14% | Won against the xG: Consadole Sapporo |
| Kashiwa Reysol 2–3 Kawasaki Frontale | 2.20–2.98 | 28% · 17% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Kawasaki Frontale |
| Jubilo Iwata 1–2 Kyoto Sanga | 1.12–0.98 | 39% · 30% · 31% | Close call, Kyoto Sanga won |
| Gamba Osaka 0–1 Shonan Bellmare | 0.58–0.91 | 22% · 36% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Albirex Niigata | 1.80–2.16 | 33% · 21% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Albirex Niigata |
| Vissel Kobe 3–3 Nagoya Grampus | 0.88–1.10 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Tokyo Verdy | 0.69–1.22 | 21% · 30% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| Sagan Tosu 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.39–2.35 | 22% · 19% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.