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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 28.3 xG (1.20 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia 1–0 Fagiano Okayama | 1.56–0.15 | 74% · 23% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Nagoya Grampus 0–4 Kashima | 1.28–1.50 | 32% · 25% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Gamba Osaka 4–2 Albirex Niigata | 1.40–0.77 | 52% · 27% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Urawa | 0.64–1.33 | 18% · 29% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Urawa had 53% |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.58–2.08 | 50% · 19% · 32% | Close call, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won |
| Vissel Kobe 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse | 2.83–1.02 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Yokohama FC 1–0 Shonan Bellmare | 1.07–0.81 | 41% · 32% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama FC |
| FC Tokyo 2–3 Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.84–0.96 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Won against the xG: Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Kyoto Sanga | 1.58–1.00 | 51% · 25% · 24% | Won against the xG: Kyoto Sanga |
| Kawasaki Frontale 4–4 Kashiwa Reysol | 2.72–1.20 | 69% · 16% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale had 69% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.