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9 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 24.5 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe 0–0 Kashima | 1.19–0.96 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Tokyo Verdy 1–0 Albirex Niigata | 0.58–1.29 | 17% · 29% · 54% | Won against the xG: Tokyo Verdy |
| Machida Zelvia 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 0.55–0.49 | 29% · 46% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kawasaki Frontale 5–3 Shimizu S-pulse | 2.12–2.73 | 30% · 18% · 52% | Close call, Kawasaki Frontale won |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 4–0 Urawa | 2.95–0.27 | 90% · 8% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Yokohama FC 2–2 Nagoya Grampus | 0.67–2.01 | 11% · 20% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Nagoya Grampus had 69% |
| Gamba Osaka 0–5 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.72–2.41 | 9% · 16% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| Fagiano Okayama 1–2 Cerezo Osaka | 1.04–1.96 | 20% · 22% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Kyoto Sanga | 0.94–1.59 | 22% · 25% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Kyoto Sanga had 53% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.